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China’s Growing Environmental Footprint in Madagascar: Opportunity, Pressure and the Climate Question

 

                                   Male Labord's Chameleon (Furcifer labordi), Kirindy Forest, Madagascar

 

 

China's economic relationship with Madagascar has expanded across several sectors, including trade, infrastructure, energy and fisheries. The relationship has created opportunities for investment and economic cooperation, but it has also raised questions about how foreign investment is regulated and how natural resources are managed.

 

Those questions are particularly important in Madagascar, one of the world's most environmentally vulnerable countries. The country is home to exceptional biodiversity, while communities in many regions depend directly on forests, fisheries and agriculture for their livelihoods. Climate change is adding to those pressures. A 2025 World Bank assessment said Madagascar is highly vulnerable to extreme weather, including severe droughts and intense cyclones, and warned that climate change threatens ecosystems, food security and livelihoods.

 

Against this background, China's growing role in Madagascar presents a complicated picture. Investment can support economic development and access to infrastructure and technology, while resource-intensive activities can create environmental and social concerns. The outcome depends not only on who provides the investment, but also on the regulations, monitoring and public oversight surrounding individual projects.

 

Rush site in the Jungle near Ambatondrazaka, Madagascar.

 

 

Mining and the environmental cost of development

 

Mining illustrates that complexity.

 

Madagascar has attracted major international investment into its mineral sector. One of the country's largest projects is the Ambatovy nickel and cobalt mine in eastern Madagascar. It is important to distinguish Ambatovy from specifically Chinese investment: the mine is owned by an international consortium rather than being a Chinese-owned project.

The mine has nevertheless become an important case study in the country's debate over development and biodiversity. A 2022 study published in Nature Sustainability examined Ambatovy's biodiversity-offset program and found evidence that conservation measures associated with the project had reduced deforestation in several offset areas. The researchers estimated that the measures had avoided between 1,644 and 3,122 hectares of deforestation by January 2020, depending on the model used.

 

The researchers also emphasized important limitations. Preventing forest loss does not necessarily mean that all biodiversity impacts have been eliminated, particularly because the study used forest cover as a proxy rather than measuring the response of individual species. The authors also raised questions about the long-term protection of offset areas and the effects of conservation restrictions on surrounding communities.

 

Ambatovy example therefore shows why the environmental debate surrounding foreign investment cannot be reduced to a simple calculation of jobs and economic output versus environmental damage. Large projects can finance conservation measures, but the effectiveness and durability of those measures need to be independently assessed.

 

Fisheries and the question of transparency

 

China's involvement in Madagascar's fisheries sector has generated a more direct public controversy.

 

Vezo fisherman in Madagascar

 

 

In 2018, a Malagasy private association signed a proposed 10-year, $2.7 billion framework agreement with Chinese companies that planned to send hundreds of fishing vessels to Madagascar. The proposal attracted opposition from local fishers, environmental organizations and government officials. Madagascar's fisheries minister said at the time that he had learned about the agreement through the media.

 

Mongabay, an independent nonprofit environmental news organization reported that critics said the agreement had not been made public and that the association behind it had not conducted an environmental impact assessment or public consultation. Civil-society organizations also questioned why social and environmental impact studies had not been disclosed.

 

The controversy highlighted a broader issue: access to Madagascar's marine resources is not only an environmental question but also a question of transparency and public participation.

 

Subsequent reporting continued to examine Chinese-linked fishing activity in Madagascar. In 2021, Mongabay reported that several vessels operating through the company Mada Fishery had previously been registered to Chinese ports or companies. The report also noted that information about the ownership structure of Mada Fishery was difficult to obtain.

 

For small-scale fishing communities, the consequences of industrial fishing can be particularly significant. Competition for marine resources can affect catches and household incomes, making fisheries policy directly relevant to food security and livelihoods.

 

Barracuda - Fish Market in Madagascar

 

Energy cooperation and the green-development question

 

China's relationship with Madagascar is not limited to natural-resource extraction.

 

Energy cooperation has also become part of bilateral discussions. In a December 2024 interview, China's ambassador to Madagascar discussed the potential for cooperation in renewable energy and referred specifically to solar and wind power. He also highlighted the proposed Hanumafana hydropower project, which was described as having an installed capacity of 64 megawatts.

 

Such cooperation is relevant because Madagascar continues to face serious energy-access challenges. Renewable-energy projects could help reduce dependence on more polluting sources while improving access to electricity, although the environmental and social effects of individual projects still need to be assessed.

 

China's broader energy relationship with Africa has also increasingly emphasized renewable energy. At the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation summit, China announced new financing and cooperation initiatives that included infrastructure and clean-energy projects across Africa.

 

For Madagascar, however, the important question is how much of this broader commitment translates into projects that provide reliable energy while also meeting environmental and community standards.

 

Cultivating the Malagasy Hillsides

 

 

Environmental justice and community participation

 

Behind debates over mining, fisheries and infrastructure is a broader issue: who gets to participate in decisions about natural resources?

 

The 2018 fisheries controversy provides one example. Civil-society organizations questioned the transparency of the proposed agreement and called attention to the lack of publicly available environmental and social information.

The same principle applies more broadly to major development projects. Environmental assessments are most useful when affected communities can access the information, understand the potential consequences and participate in decision-making.

 

This is particularly important in rural areas where people may depend directly on forests, farmland or fishing grounds. A project can bring national economic benefits while creating costs that are concentrated among communities living closest to it.

 

The Ambatovy research provides an example of this tension. Researchers found that conservation measures connected to the mine helped reduce deforestation, but they also noted that restrictions on access to forest resources created costs for some surrounding communities.

 

Governance and accountability

 

The environmental consequences of foreign investment ultimately depend heavily on governance.

 

Madagascar has laws and institutions governing environmental assessments, mining and fisheries, but enforcement and transparency remain important challenges. The fisheries controversy demonstrated how uncertainty over agreements can quickly become a public issue when information is not readily available.

 

Transparency is therefore important at several stages: before a project is approved, while environmental assessments are conducted, during implementation and after environmental commitments are made.

 

Independent monitoring can also help distinguish between promises and measurable results. The Ambatovy case demonstrates the value of independent research in assessing whether biodiversity commitments are producing measurable conservation outcomes.

 

 

Climate change raises the stakes

 

These debates are taking place as Madagascar faces increasing climate pressures.

 

According to the World Bank in 2025, Madagascar has experienced repeated droughts, floods and cyclones, while climate change is increasing risks to ecosystems, agriculture and livelihoods. The World Bank estimated that, without adaptation, an additional 1.68 million people could fall into poverty by 2050 because of climate change.

 

In southern Madagascar, drought and water scarcity have placed particularly severe pressure on communities. The World Bank reported in June 2025 that the region has faced repeated droughts and that climate-related pressures are threatening agricultural and fishing livelihoods.

 

This makes the environmental consequences of development projects more significant. Forests, wetlands, fisheries and other ecosystems can provide a degree of protection against climate-related shocks. Damage to those systems can therefore have consequences beyond biodiversity alone.

 

Portraits of children from the village of Itampolo in the midst of a drought; they are asking passersby for water.

 

 

Balancing investment and sustainability

 

China's growing economic relationship with Madagascar presents neither a purely positive nor purely negative environmental story.

 

Chinese companies and institutions are involved in areas that can contribute to economic development, including trade and energy cooperation. At the same time, controversies surrounding fisheries demonstrate why transparency and environmental oversight matter when foreign companies receive access to natural resources. Research on Madagascar's mining sector likewise shows that environmental mitigation can produce measurable conservation benefits while still leaving difficult questions about long-term biodiversity and community impacts.

 

For Madagascar, the central issue is therefore not simply the origin of foreign investment. It is whether investment projects operate under clear environmental standards, whether agreements are transparent, and whether communities affected by those projects have meaningful opportunities to participate.

 

As climate change increases pressure on the country's ecosystems and livelihoods, those questions are becoming harder to separate from Madagascar's broader development strategy.

 

The challenge is to attract investment and create economic opportunities while ensuring that forests, fisheries and other natural resources remain available to the communities that depend on them.

For Madagascar, sustainable development will ultimately depend not only on how much investment the country attracts, but also on how effectively that investment is governed.

 

Raveloaritiana Mamisoa